NBA Playoffs: Western Conference Semifinals

#8 Memphis Grizzlies vs. #4 Oklahoma City Thunder

This is going to be an incredible series to witness. No one is playing more inspired basketball than the Grizzlies right now, and the Thunder are one of the most exciting teams in the league. Let's take a look at the important factors in the series for each squad.

Memphis

1. Team defense

Lionel Hollins and his staff had a great game plan against the Spurs and the players executed it to near perfection. They played an aggressive and attacking style of defense which is ideal for their personnel. The Grizz managed to hold a San Antonio team that had averaged 103.7 points per game during the regular season to just 94.3 ppg. Memphis essentially rendered the Spurs' offense useless by effectively rotating, closing out on shooters, and contesting shots. Memphis also did a fantastic job - especially Tony Allen - of playing the passing lanes, getting steals, and disrupting the overall flow of San Antonio's offense by deflecting the ball repeatedly. Now they are faced with the challenge of defending two-time scoring champ Kevin Durant and explosive point guard Russell Westbrook. Their defense will have to make the same concerted effort to down the Thunder.

2. Zach Randolph

Z-Bo is a veritable superstar. He delivers in crunch time, makes his teammates better, and is more consistent than just about any player in the league (as evidenced by his four consecutive 20/10 seasons). There are a few keys to his success. Randolph understands positioning better than anybody, knows how to create space better than anybody, and is willing to do the work necessary to make it happen. He also has incredible hands, a deft touch, and wonderful creativity for someone that does not possess a lot of athleticism. His complete domination in the last few minutes against the Spurs in the deciding game 6 showed how special he is. Randolph has two excellent reasons to be inordinately confident right now. Not only is he coming off that exceptional first-round series, but he also averaged 26.5 points and 13 rebounds in the four meetings against Oklahoma City this season. This bodes extremely well for Memphis as Z-Bo will have to deliver at a very high level for the Grizz to move on.

3. Bench Play

Memphis has benefited from timely bench contributions:

Darrell Arthur's athleticism gave the Spurs all kinds of problems. He provided the Grizzlies with an emotional spark through his high-flying blocked shots and rim-rocking dunks. He also showed he has the capacity to take over a ball game.

O.J. Mayo can score in bunches and he hit several shots to stop the bleeding against San Antonio. Because of an in-flight incident earlier this season with Tony Allen - which was then a distraction - O.J. has matured at a much quicker rate. His acceptance of coming off the bench has made him a valuable commodity.

The fortunes of the Grizzlies changed dramatically once Shane Battier arrived in late February. Battier's approach to the game has been infectious. He has a blue-collar work ethic, does not make excuses, and is always willing to sacrifice for the benefit of the group. This team could not have found a better locker room mentor.

When starting point guard Mike Conley went out with two fouls early on in game six, Greivis Vasquez stepped in without missing a beat. He played like a season veteran by taking full advantage of what the defense gave him. His decision making was sound, defensive effort solid, and he took good care of the ball. This is exactly what they need him to do.

If the Grizzlies' bench continues to play like this, it could mean trouble for OKC.

Oklahoma City

1. Kevin Durant

KD can score like no other. The league's leading scorer for two consecutive seasons is also leading all playoff scorers. Not only that, but he had one of the most amazing playoff performances by lighting up Denver for 41 in the decisive game five Wednesday night. Trailing by 9 with 3:30 remaining, Durant scored 14 of the Thunder’s final 18 points (and their final 9 in the last 1:21!). The big question is will Durant continue to score at such a high rate (32.4 ppg) while shooting the ball so well from the floor (47% from 2, 43% from 3). The task is going to be much tougher with the bodies, athleticism, and desire that Memphis will throw at him, and without KD scoring 30+ Oklahoma City stands virtually no chance. His offensive production will be crucial, simply because the Thunder rely so heavily on it.

2. Russell Westbrook

Russell Westbrook's decision making will play a huge role in the outcome of this series. He was able to get away with several mistakes against the Nuggets, but he will not be afforded that same luxury playing against the team that led the league in steals and forced turnovers. He will have to do an excellent job of taking care of the ball, deciding when it is time to pass/shoot, and playing within himself. Westbrook was heavily criticized (and rightfully so) for his game 4 performance after he tried to win it himself rather than deferring to Durant. Will he grow from that experience or will he let it affect him as he moves forward? One thing is for certain, the Grizzlies defense will try to make him rush his decisions. How Westbrook deals with Memphis' pressure will be one of the critical factors in determining who comes out on top in this series.

3. Control of the paint

The battle of the "bigs" is of utmost importance. Serge Ibaka, with his nine blocked shots in game 5 against Denver, has emerged as a game-changing force. He is incredibly athletic and may be able to create problems for Zach Randolph on his own. The Thunder obtained Kendrick Perkins and Nazr Mohammed at the trade deadline to address size issues, and due to their recent success against Nené and Kenyon Martin they are proving to be good acquisitions. It is imperative for the Thunder to push Randolph and Gasol off the block and not allow them to catch the ball where they want it. OKC also needs to win the rebounding battle. The Thunder can ill afford giving up second-chance scoring opportunities. The winner of the inside game will likely take the series.


Things I am wondering:

How will OKC match up with Memphis and how will Memphis match up with OKC? More specifically, will Conley be able to check Westbrook?

Will Oklahoma City be forced to double down on Randolph?

Can Memphis knock down jump shots if Oklahoma City succeeds in making the Grizzlies a jump shooting team?

Prediction:

I cannot bet against the Grizzlies right now. They look like a team that is playing with too much heart, passion, and desire to be denied. Memphis advances in 6.