NBA Playoffs: Eastern Conference Semifinals

#1 Chicago Bulls vs. #5 Atlanta Hawks

Virtually nobody expected the Hawks to get by Orlando, but now Atlanta has the incredible opportunity to play the team that compiled the NBA's best record this season. Some awesome talent will be on display, and if the Hawks play at a high level they have a legitimate shot of getting the job done. Here are some key factors for both squads.

Chicago

1. Derrick Rose

Rose, the likely MVP of the league, has carried Chicago all year long. After taking a physical pounding against Indiana (and suffering an ankle sprain), will Rose have enough energy and strength left in his tank to be the dominant player that he has become? As we enter May, all of those bumps, hits, and hard falls from the course of the season take their toll. Will Rose continue to play with reckless abandon or will he think twice about coming down the lane to take a beating from Zaza Pachulia and Al Horford? Rose's aggressiveness will be critical to the Bulls' performance because they have grown to rely on him so much. His ability to create shots for himself and others off the dribble is the catalyst behind the Bulls' attack, and if Rose is limited in any way whatsoever their whole game plan may have to be thrown by the wayside....which could mean disaster.

2. Carlos Boozer

Boozer's struggles against Indiana in the first round were well documented. After averaging 17.5 points on 51% shooting during the regular season, Boozer put up just 10.2 points on 37% shooting against the Pacers. And if that was not bad enough, a turf-toe injury surfaced on his right foot during game 5 that puts both his availability and production in doubt against Atlanta. On the good side, Chicago played a bulk of the season without his services and were quite successful in those games. On the bad side, they have grown accustomed to having Boozer on the floor and run all of their interior plays through him. If he is unable to go, more pressure will be placed on Joakim Noah and Kurt Thomas to deliver on the inside. Despite Carlos' horrible regular season performances against the Hawks this year (2 games, 8.5 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 42% shooting), his low-post presence and production will be needed for the Bulls to advance.

3. Turnovers

One of the big reasons why Chicago had such difficulties beating the 37-win Pacers was because they did a poor job of taking care of the ball. The Bulls averaged over 16 turnovers per game in the 5-game series, and those turnovers led to an average of 21.2 points for the Pacers. If they do the same against Atlanta, they will be punished even more because the Hawks have better finishers in the open court. The Hawks, because of their athleticism, do a good job of covering the court and have the potential to complicate things for Chicago. The danger for Chicago is that sometimes Derrick Rose gets himself into trouble because he tries to do too much. Rose will need to determine what situations to avoid to prevent give-aways from happening that lead to easy scores on the other end. As long as the Bulls do not get turnover happy, they stand an excellence chance to win the series.

Atlanta

1. Finishing

The Hawks are facing a Bulls squad that allowed opponents to connect on a league-low 43.0% of their field goals. This means, quite simply, that Atlanta has to convert on easy scoring opportunities every time they get them. The Hawks can create these opportunities by making steals, blocking shots, grabbing long rebounds, and coming up with the 50-50 balls. The good news is that Larry Drew has a bunch of athletes on his roster that are capable of getting out in the open court and finishing at the hoop. How often these opportunities come around, however, will largely depend on Atlanta's commitment to the defensive end of the floor. This has proved to be a problematic area for the Hawks as they are known to suffer lapses of concentration in this department. In order to pose a threat this series, the Hawks will have to be focused on the task at hand and take full advantage of whatever Chicago gives them.

2. Joe Johnson

Just as Chicago counts on Derrick Rose, Atlanta counts on Joe Johnson. Johnson is one of the best all-around players in the league and he will be called upon to be the creative force behind the Atlanta attack, make plays for himself and others, and deliver in late game situations. This is a huge amount of responsibility for a player that has never fared well in the playoffs while being the go-to-guy. There is evidence to suggest that as Johnson goes, so go the Hawks. In two playoff losses against Orlando, Johnson averaged 9.5 points on 29% shooting. In their four playoff wins, he dropped 22.3 ppg on 43% shooting. This season in three contests against Chicago, he averaged just 13.7 ppg on 39% shooting. His production and efficiency will have to rise significantly for Atlanta to have a chance at knocking off Chicago.

3. Guard play

With Kirk Hinrich likely out for the series due to a strained hamstring, who is going to step up and answer the call for Coach Larry Drew? Will it be Jeff Teague? Jamal Crawford? And who is going to have the responsibilities of guarding Derrick Rose? These are huge question marks to have as the series approaches. Hinrich is known as a gritty defender. He works endlessly to confound the player he is guarding and set the tone for his squad's defense. Now that he is sidelined, that role will have to be embraced by someone else. It probably will not be Crawford as he flourishes in his sixth-man role. That leaves the little used and often forgotten about Jeff Teague. Teague is going to have the challenge of a lifetime, and how well or poorly he fares could have a huge impact on the outcome of this series.

Things I am wondering:

Will Luol Deng's outstanding play against the Hawks this season continue in the playoffs?

Who will have better bench play in the series? And more specifically, will Kyle Korver be called upon to take big 3's, and if so will he keep hitting them?

The Hawks did a great job of defending Orlando, but how well will Atlanta re-adjust their defense to deal with Chicago's attack?

Prediction:

The Bulls, barring injuries, are too much for Atlanta to handle. Chicago, having the first round under their belt and those jitters out of the way, will play better basketball than they did against Indiana. Chi-town wins in five.