NBA Playoffs: The Finals

#2 Miami Heat vs. #3 Dallas Mavericks

Miami and Dallas, carrying identical 12-3 playoff records into the championship series, have been playing their best basketball of the season these past few weeks. The Heat have been downright incredible, getting by each Philadelphia, Boston, and Chicago in only five games. The Mavericks, meanwhile, have been riding the Dirk Nowitzki train to defeat Portland, the Lakers, and Oklahoma City. Both of these squads are very deserving of reaching the finals, but now it is time to see which one will emerge as champion. Let's look at some key factors in play.

Miami

1. The Big Three

The production of LeBron, D-Wade, and CB will be critical to Miami's championship success. One thing is for certain...if The Big Three continues to play at their established playoff level, it is going to be very hard for Dallas to win this series. It all starts (and ends) with LeBron James. After struggling mightily during the regular season in late-game situations, LBJ has been absolutely masterful when the stakes have been at their highest. Single-handedly closing out games, LeBron has left no doubt that he is the best all-around player in the game today. In addition to LeBron's unbelievable performances, Chris Bosh has stepped up his play when it has mattered most. CB totally dominated the Bulls and appears to feel more comfortable every day in the Miami scheme. His play in this series will be of particular importance because he is likely to be matched up with Dirk Nowitzki a good portion of the time. And let us not forget about D-Wade. Although his game has been sub-par from an individual standpoint thus far, he is extremely dangerous and capable of erupting at any point in time. In any case, The Big Three's success, or lack thereof, may be the biggest determining factor in the outcome of this series.

2. Management of Personnel

Coach Erik Spoelstra has many difficult decisions to make. Who will start guarding Dirk? Who will be switched on to Dirk? At what times will LeBron be in charge of covering Dirk? How will the pick-and-roll be guarded? How will the rotation be handled? Will LBJ and D-Wade rest at alternate times? Or perhaps they won't get any rest at all? These questions all need to be answered the right way for Miami to have its best chance at winning the championship. Dirk Nowitzki has been unstoppable in these playoffs and how Miami chooses to match up with him will be of the utmost importance. They have four candidates to guard him: Chris Bosh, Joel Anthony, Udonis Haslem, and LBJ. While the three power forwards will bang on Dirk throughout most of the contest, look for LeBron to guard him in crucial situations. LeBron not only loves challenges but he also has the size, strength, and mobility to potentially make things difficult for the 7-foot German. Furthermore, Spoelstra will have to pick the right times to give his studs some rest. Dallas has an incredibly talented bench and this series could ultimately hinge on Spoeltra's substitution decisions.

3. No Second Shots

In order to win the series, the Heat will have to shore up the defensive glass and impede Dallas from getting multiple looks at the basket. The Mavericks have significant offensive rebounding threats - Tyson Chandler, Brendan Haywood, Dirk Nowitzki, Shawn Marion, and Jason Kidd first come to mind- and, due to the bevy of shooters on their roster, are extremely dangerous when given second chances. Miami's big men will have their work cut out for them but they will also need to receive help from the smalls to get the job done. Heat defenders must make an effort to stay in proper defensive position, make the right rotations, and get a body on the offensive player for which they are responsible. Not only will this prevent Dallas from having more scoring opportunities, but it will also allow the Heat to get out in transition and take advantage of the brilliant open-court players they have on their roster. If Miami does indeed win the battle of the boards, it bodes well for them and their chances to become the 2011 NBA champs.

Dallas

1. Dirk Nowitzki

The fortunes of the Mavericks ride on the broad shoulders of Dirk Nowitzki. Dirk's post-season play thus far has been matched by few in the entire history of the league. His outside shooting touch is the best of any 7-foot player ever, and his ability to knock down free throws is unparalleled (24-24 in game one against OKC!). Nate McMillan, Phil Jackson, and Scott Brooks all tried to find ways to limit Dirk's production - none of them had any sort of success at all. As the Mavericks have advanced to play better competition, things should have been getting tougher and tougher for Dirk but that has simply not been the case. After torturing both the Trailblazers and Lakers, Dirk was absolutely out of this world against the Thunder (who seemingly had the best personnel to deal with him). Much like OKC, Miami has multiple bodies to throw at him and will try to wear him down. They will attack him, trap him, and do whatever they have to do to get the ball out of his hands. But will any of it matter? After all, Dirk has shown great patience, a willingness to share the ball, and unbelievable shot-making ability. The one thing that will matter is Dirk playing in his accustomed manner, because if he does not Dallas has no shot against the uber-talented Heat.

2. The Bench

Jason Terry, J.J. Barea, Peja Stojakovic, and Brendan Haywood have been a fundamental part of Dallas' playoff success. While Terry and Stojakovic provide scoring from the exterior, Haywood gives the Mavericks a physical presence down low. That brings us to Barea. The diminutive point guard's ability to beat defenses via dribble penetration has enabled him to completely take over games. Despite Barea's incredibly small stature, not one player has found a way to stay in front of him or even contest his shots throughout these playoffs. Although he has been the most heralded bench player for the Mavericks, Jason Terry will prove to be the most important in this series. Terry is just one of two Mavs (Dirk is the other) to remain from the 2006 Finals' run, and The Jet is more motivated than ever to get it done this time. He, too, possesses the ability to take over ball games. Terry is an adept scorer that can not only light it up from beyond the arc but also from mid-range. If The Jet is able to get on one of his streaks, it could mean lights out for Miami.

3. Defense

The Mavericks, not too long ago, were referred to as Allas because there was no "D" in the big D. Although Coach Rick Carlisle, when hired, brought with him a defensive-first mentality, the Mavericks did not have the necessary personnel to carry out Carlisle's defensive missions right away. That changed this season when the Mavs acquired the 7'1" Chandler. "Big Ty" gives the Mavericks the length, agility, and determination that was needed on the interior. He is an outstanding defensive rebounder, tremendous shot blocker, and plays with a certain swagger that elevates the confidence of his teammates. His energy on the offensive end should not be discounted either; it is often his rebounds, put backs, and alley-oop dunks that begin game-changing runs made by the Mavericks. Chandler's contributions will be critical, but he will also need help from the rest of his gang. Carlisle will certainly implement the zone defense at times, but how effective will it be against the Heat? The bottom line is that LBJ, D-Wade, and Chris Bosh provide extraordinary challenges for Dallas' man-to-man and zone defenses. If the Mavericks can find ways to contain them, Mark Cuban and Company could very well be hoisting the championship trophy within two weeks time.

Things I am wondering:

Dallas has won their last five playoff road games while Miami was gone 8-0 at home this post-season. What will give in this series?

In the 2006 Finals Dwyane Wade lived at the foul line. In these playoffs, Dirk Nowitzki has done the same. What team will get to the foul line more often and what impact will it have on the outcome?

In their 9-man rotation, Dallas has a combined 103 years of playing experience but no championships. Will that lack of experience hurt them, help them, or play no role whatsoever?

Prediction:

Dallas and Miami are both playing at an exceptionally high level. Dirk's performances have been legendary, and LBJ's talents have totally set him apart from rest of the league. The Mavericks have the personnel and coaching to get it done....but so do the Heat. So what will happen? Given the way Miami has jelled over the last several weeks, I find it very hard for Dallas to beat the Heat in a seven-game series. Look for Miami's athleticism and superstar-power to win out in six marvelous games.